The International Rafale forum

During 2008, I've sent a couple of mail to Dassault Aviation so as to understand the multiple Rafale program costs estimates.

A very nice guy answered me, quite accurately :


Here we go :
The first thing you have to know is that total program costs include :

• R&D costs, which are paid at 25% by the industrials (mainly Dassault/Thales/Snecma), the other 75% being paid by the french state (thus, the taxpayers).
• the quote production, which includes :
  
  • the industrialization
  • the production of 120 Rafale C
  • the production of 114 Rafale B
  • the production of 60 Rafale M
  • the simulators
  • spares
  • maintain means (on all levels)

120/114/60 comes from Air Fan (2008).


The following figures were true in 2004. They are outdated now !
As we could find several figures such as 26billions, up to 35.5billions (a real mess), i wanted someone in the know to explain me this all...
So :

• the whole Rafale programme should cost (only estimate) 28 billions Euros, for the tax payers. (which makes 95M€ per Rafale)
• the quoted 33.5 billions figure is actually the latter one with VAT (+19.6%). Though it's what the DoD paies, our state receive the VAT, that's why it isn't very interesting, actually. But the 4% cost overrun is calculated on this 33.5 figure, and guess what ? 4% of 33.5 makes 1.34billions.
• Since tax payers do not pay the industrials share in R&D, the total costs are estimated around 30billions (28+2billions), which makes a bit more than 35.5billions with VAT.
• And, the 26billions figure is actually false : it's the estimate of Rafale program cost if the Rafale M hadn't been developed. The goal of this figure is to compare the Rafale's cost to Typhoon's cost, on a comparable basis (from taxpayers point of view). Probably biased.

Then, i asked the guy about the quoted 11billions R&D figure in some documents from the Assemblée Nationale. He answered me that again, it was a price with VAT.
France actually pays 7.2billions in R&D for the full program. And the industrials pay 25% which makes nearly 2 billions. (9.2 x 1.196 = 11).

All of this leaves 20.8billions for the quote production, and I'm trying to get details about this part, but it's very hard to find someone who can talk to me about this, as Dassault doesn't know how it's calculated. Also i'm trying to contact our DoD (EDIT in 2009 : they NEVER answered )
This was for the 2004 estimates.


To give you an idea about the quote production, i only can provide you with those figures from the Senat in 1999 (in millions, converted in Euros) :

Quote production : 22,193

• industrialization : 2,727
• production of 95 Rafale C : 4,153
• production of 139 Rafale B : 6,514
• production of 60 Rafale M : 2,989
• simulators : 186
• spares : 5,597 (not included in 1998 estimate)
• maintain means (on all levels) : ? (not detailed or not even included in 1999 estimate)

But keep in mind that those figures have changed (the quote production being less).

As i asked the Dassault man about cost increases in R&D, while the total cost remained unchanged, he told me that the quote production had decreased due to better productivity (CATIA, etc), and that it's still decreasing : they are catching up the 4% costs overrun.

And last, the Assemblée Nationale 2007 unit cost estimates are :

• 52.8 Millions Euros for a Rafale C (44.1 without VAT)
• 56.6M€ for a Rafale B (47.3 without VAT)
• 60.8 M for the M (50.8 without VAT)

http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/13/budget/plf2008/b0276-a9.asp

The problem is that, again, i don't know how they are calculated yet.


Added : the program is to last from 1989 to 2021 (last delivery).



2008 updates :
http://www.senat.fr/rap/a08-102-5/a08-102-516.html
In 2008, the programme cost to our state is €39.6Bn.
Unit cost (without R&D) between 64 and €70M.
I simply can't explain the increase., because in the same time, C. Edelstenne claims that the programme has caught up the 4% costs overrun.

2010 updates :
See next message.
Total programme cost (Cour des Comptes includes the industrial part usually) : €40.69Bn.
Unit production cost : €101.1M (this is not the unit "flyaway" cost)

2011 updates :
See here.
Total programme cost to State : €43.567Bn
This figure is nearly the same as the previous, the differences being 2011 costs actualisation (inflation), and this time, the industrial participation (25 % of the R&D).


http://www.assemblee-nationale.fr/13/rapports/r1615-t2.asp
Here, C.Edelstenne saies the Rafale MCO (operational maintainance) is 12 to 13% higher than the M2000's one, which is good considering Rafale is a twin-engined.
This figure sometimes quoted as high as 35,000 € per flight hour in the MN in 2004 is expected to drop at ~12,000€ per hour.
http://www.senat.fr/rap/r07-352/r07-35210.html
http://www.senat.fr/rap/r07-340/r07-3405.html

2010 update :

Good news : the "Cour des Comptes" (the French NAO) published its latest analysis. Unfortunately they still lack the details.
http://www.ccomptes.fr/fr/CC/documents/ ... mement.pdf

As it is my first time posting here, first of all I wld like to say hello to all and congrats for your website.

Let's now focus on the subject :
Tax payer money ... This is not an infinite resource. As there is hardly more than 60Million of ppl in France and that only tax payer pay for this program it will look like more relevant to quote a price per TxPer as up to this date this is mainly an in country program.

Hence it wld be possible to figure what we've got for the bucks spent and compare it to other program. We might then see how efficient it could hve been and what are the budgeting capacities left for any future upgrade. International cooperation play on this special ground and will rely heavly on this argument to widen the gap (think abt the Flanker)

~S!

In 2010...

The unit programme cost of a Rafale for France (tax payers + industrials) is €142M with VAT (119 without). This includes all the costs, and would be what tax payers would pay if our State had funded all the R&D on its own.

But since it's not the case, tax payers actually pay less.

So, here we go :

We have a total production cost of €40.7Bn...

This is made of R&D + production + VAT.

Let's remove the VAT : the total programme cost drops at € 34 Bn for 286 Rafale.

The above document gives us the production cost of each Rafale : €101.1M per Rafale with VAT.

Let's remove the VAT : the production cost of each Rafale is €84.5M.

We have €34Bn which includes 286 x 84.5 = € 24,2 Bn for the production, thus, R&D cost 9.8 Bn.

The State only paid 75 percent of the R&D, so it makes €7.35Bn.

€7.35Bn of R&D
+ €24.2Bn of production
= € 31.55 Bn for 286 Rafale, paid by tax payers.

Each Rafale costs €111M to the tax payers. Add €8M for the industrial participation.


Note that due to the 25 percent industrial participation, tax payers pay less than in other countries. But it also makes the Rafale a bit more expensive for export market, since the industrials will try to recover their money. This decision is said to be unique.

production costs including spares/simulators etc right? Not fly away cost.

Yes.

Thank you TMOR for this detailled answer. Let's pass the reverse now

I understand that it's a 12OM per aircraft for 286 planes (=300)

There is 25 million population of active worker that may pay taxes in France. So it's 5€/p for every single plane. Hence for a fleet of 300 : 1500 euros/p

Each Raptor cost around 200M for a planed fleet of around 200 planes. With 135 million of US taxpayer we have a unit cost of 1.5$/p - hence 300$/p for the fleet.

Let's say if 1€=1.5$, we have

Planed op fleet:
US : 200€/p
Fr : 1500€/p

of course those nbr are for a sensible amount of fiscal years

Now it will be more relevant to add the F35 to get a similar operational capabilities (minus stealth) or reduce the Rafale fleet to match that of the F22

Planed op Fleet (AirDom)
US : 200€/p
Fr : 1000€/p

OR with an F35 estimated cost of 85M and a total fleet of 2500 units => fleet cost per taxpayer : 1500$=1000€

Planed op Fleet (AA&AG)
US : 1200€/p
Fr : 1500€/p

Clearly France gain much more benefits producing its own fighters in term of Pol, Eco, Techno etc... However if we pay attention to what can be eared across the Atlantic regarding growing concerns with DoD' budgets being overstretched, it's hard not to conclude that we too may have reached a peak regarding fighter procurement policy. Current US administration cut down overall fleet nbr to keep budget in constraint. We bought more.

But I'm not an expert... and my point was about budgeting future upgrade

~S!

you forgot to factor in navy planes; after all of those 300, 60 Rafales do equip the french navy and not the armée de l'air.

Hi Nic,

I don't think I did forget the 60 Rafale for the navy.

My point of view was that we may hve reached a climax in term of fighter procurement policy with the end of governments being the buyer and manufacturers submitting a product designed around the specifications.

...Mainly because there is only one manufacturer left in its soil and not only for fighters but also for any military aircraft (it's hard to imagine any susbquent RoP send to Airbus in a near future)

That being said my opinion was to show that it cld be more suitable to move toward a proto policy articulated around annual budgets and a long term pre-planed fleet capacity.

I know that is what is basically being done since long, but it might be time for France to write it in words to avoid moving back and forward on such costly programs

~S!

I didn't mean to say you forgot the 60 Navy Rafales, I meant to say you forgot the SH in your caluclation for the cost US fleet per capita